Post


12
Jul 10

Email AI

I’m in the middle of a couple books on complexity — and they’ve affected me.    In the email hell that is my worklife, I started to think about an emergent/adaptive inbox.  Here’s what I’m thinking:

Decaying Relevancy:  Imagine all incoming email has a “freshness” date.  It came in X time ago.  That email is either read or unread.  There’s quite a bit of intelligence in these two dimensions.  Email I care about will be read while fresh.  Email I drudge through — or that is complex — will be read and stale.  Email that is unread and stale is useless.  That leaves fresh unread email.  That’s what I really care about making sense of.

Sender Benchmarking:  Now is when it gets interesting.  Imagine that I know, for each sender, a distribution on read/unread and freshness.   That distribution is going to tell a lot — some shapes will be fat-headed, where 80% of the emails I read right away.  Some will be fat-tailed — where I read very few of them right away.  Based on these distributions, I can start to categorize and prioritize my email (or rather, it can be done adaptively based on my normal interaction with email).

Behavioral Conclusion:  The last area that rounds out my adaptive email system is what happens with the read email.  My biggest problem with work email is actually read mail that is sitting in my inbox.  I either need to reply, archive, or take other action.  The first two conclusions are part of my normal email workflow.  Adding a follow-up action usually puts an email in purgatory.  This is where the freshness comes in.

Bringing It All Together

So my problems fall out as follows:

  1. Unread important email
  2. Read, non-concluded, important email
  3. Read, non-concluded, unimportant email
  4. Unread, unimportant email

The key unknown is importance.  Using sender distributions — I can determine importance as a function of freshness.  Adding behavioral conclusion to the freshness metrics, we now can calculate % of items read and % concluded per sender.  We can also weight these by the time it takes to do both of those.

By creating benchmarks/norms, each email can be given an importance rating.  High importance items, with longer times in the unread and/or non-concluded buckets, receive the highest priority.   Just by organizing my email inbox into unread-important and a read-non-concluded views, prioritized by freshness, I know I’d be quite a bit more productive.

Other interesting by-products could be a way to score how productive you are by day/daypart.  You could also create a feedback mechanism to people you interact with via email — how important their emails are to you.  Finally, you could break apart a senders importance distribution to allow them to explicitly rank a message on how important they think it is.  Their rating could then be matched to how your emergent system rates it — and productive feedback loops could ensue.


29
May 10

The Perfect Grocery List Interface

Kottke says iPad.  I think there is an equally portable and user-friendly approach:  the pad and pencil.  If all it helps you do is walk around to make a list — not a plus.  If it, instead, organizes what shops, and route through the store, based on my list — now you’re talking.  If it tries to identify things I’m almost out of and haven’t listened — win.  Otherwise — paper and pen work…


28
May 10

Pickle Jar: Affordances and Innovation

Last night I had a rough time opening a jar of pickles.  I exerted quite a bit of effort to finally pop the lid.  It made me think of my grandmother (who passed a few years ago).  She lived alone for quite a while.  As she got older, and a little sicker, she seemed to eat less and less.  And I think her diet suffered quite a bit.

With the baby boomers aging into the retired and elderly phases of life I think about the pickle jar.  How many objects don’t have elderly-friendly affordances?  The old-time canning jar (and versions of it like the pickle, olive, etc) hasn’t progressed much.  They are innovating around refrigerator boxes of beer and soda, beer bottles that supposedly make the beer taste better, easy flow ketchup, etc.  But what about making it easier to for people who it isn’t easy for?

I bet my grandmother started to select food items at the grocery store she knew she could open.  As much as she loved pickles, I bet she stopped buying them.

As any parent knows, another big packaging issue is toys.  So many boxes are impossible to open (and this extends to many products that require knives to break through the plastic shell).  And then the toy itself is fastened with plastic coated metal twist ties.  Tens of them.  Not only is it a pain to open — you’ve got all these choke hazards lying around.

Instead of innovating around package design to either stand out or increase consumption — why not focus some effort on facilitating use in the first place.  Innovate around your product affordances… create them or make them better.


27
Apr 10

The Magic of Dance

If your kid (evidence only for kids <3) is acting out his/her terrible two part — there is a solution:  Queen and Michael Jackson.  My 2.5 year-old daughter asked for a few encores of “Rock You” song.  And, if you ignore the lyrics and just groove, PYT, Beat It, and Billie Jean are winners.   We jammed for a good 20-30 minutes — and she transformed back into her fun self.  I had forgotten how fun it is to break loose and dance.  I wonder what happens between the body and the mind that releases all those good vibes.

Evidence Exhibit A (weak)

Evidence Exhibit B (no science — but makes sense)

Evidence Exhibit C (getting closer):

Still, dance boosts mood more than does exercise alone. In a study at the University of London, researchers assigned patients with anxiety disorders to spend time in one of four therapeutic settings: a modern-dance class, an exercise class, a music class, or a math class. Only the dance class significantly reduced anxiety.

Evidence Exhibit D (seems like the real deal)


17
Apr 10

Lost Touch

When a critic turns his aim towards a medium he doesn’t understand:  see Ebert’s article on why games aren’t art.  He’s handicapping his argument through a critique of a TED talk.  Nonetheless, his premise is flawed and mired in logical inconsistencies.

A quick example:  I would contend Ebert thinks some commercial films (and books) are works of art.

I allow Sangtiago the last word. Toward the end of her presentation, she shows a visual with six circles, which represent, I gather, the components now forming for her brave new world of video games as art. The circles are labeled: Development, Finance, Publishing, Marketing, Education, and Executive Management. I rest my case.

Why is he selectively ignoring the fact that any film studio or publisher has business structures like the above?

Most unsettling, and perhaps most demonstrative of his antiquated view, is the feeling that I think his main problem is that “players” control the narrative of the game.  He makes faulty logical arguments.  In the end he stands on taste.  And Ebert, stick to the movies, you’ve got a better sense of taste there.

P.S.  I usually like (even if I don’t agree with) his points of view.  This kind of article just makes him seem irrelevant.


21
Mar 10

The End of a Market Economy?

What happens when you no longer own goods, but rather have rights to access them?

Is this happening?  Music, movies, and books.  At best, in the music world, you own a digital version of a song, encoded in an open format.  At worst, you own the “rights” to play a song in a proprietary interface.   Blu-ray will keep the physical aspect of movies rolling for a while — but with Hulu, Netflix On-Demand, and the like, streaming takes movies to the same place — “rights” rather than ownership.  And finally, as I play more and more with my Kindle, I see the world of books moving this way.

The common denominator in all of these are that they are information goods.  How do you create a market for goods you don’t own?  A key component of a market economy is that the goods are salable.  Now that I’ve purchased a book for my Kindle, how do I sell it when I’m done reading it (or donate, give it, lend it)?

My prediction: “Rights’ Exchanges.”  If software protection can ever get ahead of protection cracking, you’ll see people buying and selling rights to things.  I’m going to have to go back to my Econ books to figure out what the implications of that are.

Imagine instead of buying my public transit smart card, I buy transit rights — ones that I can use, trade, sell, or give away.  I wonder if the city could make more money by discounting bulk rights purchases so they could basically sell to capacity — rather than sell to demand.  Would this work?  It’s kind of like being a season ticket holder.  The original seller ensures a floor of revenue, minimizing risk, while the resellers take on more risk if they choose to time demand spikes.

Going to have to think more about this one.


3
Jan 10

An Interface Approach to Innovation

When we release a product, we often want to talk about its power and versatility. Truth is, nobody else wants to hear about that. They want to know – in as simple a manner as possible – why something should matter to them.

I agree with this point of view.   However, my initial reaction was that the takeaway was you needed a simple (single-use) device to have it successfully adopted.  And, while I believe that wasn’t the aim of the article, I do want to talk a bit about that faulty assumption.

I think we’re not technologically constrained to a single-use device mantra for success.  And many other people agree with this (people who criticize the Kindle, the iPhone without a camera, etc).  However — the quote above applies — and is the downfall of the do-everything device.  Here’s the paradox.  I think we need do-everything devices, but they need to be task-oriented.

The key to this is to think of interfaces.  What is the purpose of an interface?  Let’s think about a reading interface.  The ideal reading interface has good enough resolution to display very dense tables/graphics, generates very little eye strain,  is large enough to provide enough words that  line breaks don’t become cumbersome, and allows for simple/fast/intuitive navigation (scrolling, page flipping, etc).  As an interface then, the Kindle suffices.

However, one missing piece is the form of the interface.  A paperback book as a reading interface is portable, light, small, durable, very long use, exchangeable/sharable, and usable without restriction (think airplanes and electronic restrictions).  Here the Kindle only provides portability and lightness.

Another missing piece is the content.  What information is exchanged/displayed in an interface?  Where the Kindle breaks down is the limiting format of the content.  While it’s very easy for me to get books, it’s harder to get other “printed” or text into the device.  Further, the content only lives on the device — I can’t sell or transfer the content — or utilize in a format outside of the Kindle.

So form and function live in the domain of the interface — while content and format live separately.  It reminds me of the whole HTML form/content debate.  Web 2.0 and beyond are all predicated on this separation.  Devices, especially mobile interfaces, are still up against this (mobile phone vs carrier, e-readers, streaming video content).  Without a content “standard” how can there be true innovation?  Interfaces, as versatile as they might be technologically, are constrained by the content formats they have access to.


27
Dec 09

Amazon Makes You Dumb

Amazon makes you dumb — or at least that’s one consequence of this point of view.  The article blames Amazon’s tax “evasion” techniques for the inability of state and local governments to earn the tax revenues needed for schools and police.   This doesn’t make much sense to me.

Amazon is already paying taxes, federal and state, for what it produces and sells.  The only tax revenue that is under question is the additional sales tax in the state the items are purchased in.  The article claims that Amazon is finding loopholes in tax law so it can maintain a competitive advantage against rivals by offering lower prices.  If you follow that  No state sales tax –>  lower price –> competitive advantage then you have to believe that adding the state sales tax to Amazon purchases would eliminate the competitive advantage.  Then Amazon wouldn’t be selling as much in those states and you wouldn’t earn (as much as you think you should) on that revenue.  And it can’t be said, with any certainty, that the increase in revenues from the added sales tax wouldn’t be offset by the loss in corporate taxes on the total revenue earned by Amazon.

I guess I’ m a tax idiot, but I’m not sure sales tax even makes sense.  And I guess that’s a larger point —  I don’t think our tax system/law is understandable in any meaningful way.  What are the underlying principles of what is taxable and what isn’t?   It seems the whole point of tax is a means to fund public services and goods.  What would happen if sales tax were eliminated — and the required tax revenue was made up by corporate and personal income tax?  It seems strange that consumers are penalized for consuming.  Sure — keep gas and cigarette taxes in effect, but it seems the administration of sales tax itself may be so difficult to manage that it may never pay out.

Further, to this point, there more complex the tax law is, the more “loopholes” that exist.  And more time must be spent on closing those loopholes.  However, until that time, as a consumer, I’m benefiting from Amazon’s effective and legal tax maneuvering.


25
Dec 09

From A Great Height

How durable is your Kindle? I had mine in it’s optional black case. I dropped it in a way that seems would occur most frequently — oriented vertically as it is being read. It hit the bottom right corner with an audible crack. It fell about 3 feet onto a hard tile floor. The metal has a 3-4mm gouge out of it now. The front and back sections dislodged. After a few tries snapping them back together, everything seems aligned. It has been working fine for the last 5 days since the occurrence. The only hiccup, which I can’t attribute to the fall, is that the page sometimes advances on it’s own ( about once every 300 or so page flips).

I was a skeptic on the Kindle for many reasons. But after receiving one as a gift I’ve been using it quite a bit. I’m a book lover and horder. So it might be useful to document how (and if) I get comfortable using the Kindle instead of books. More to come.


7
Mar 09

Music Trends in Tag Clouds

Last 12 Months Most Played Tracks

Last 12 Months Most Played Tracks

I’ve got a wide variation of bands in my last 12 months.  When you look across 3 years or so of data, you get a different picture — with some dominant bands/names.

3 Year Most Played Tracks

3 Year Most Played Tracks

Pictures created using wordle and last.fm.