There’s no statistical rigor here — but in looking at the past 3 years of best picture winners, it seems the rate of increase in search activity in the weeks leading up to the big night coincide with the winner.
If this holds true, expect Slumdog or Frost/Nixon to win. Depending on what time period you aggregate on inside of the Google tool, it appears Slumdog has the slight advantage.
In my initial preview I found “Tonight” to be the same old Franz — in a boring way, while “Noble Bird” was the same old Andrew in a good way. I turned to Twitter and Google to see what everyone else is thinking.
First, Google shows parity in the US across the two acts in search, with Franz Ferdinand getting substantially more news hits. Oddly, the albums were released in separate weeks and search results don’t reflect this.
The most interesting distinction through Google Trends came through the location information. I started with no regional filters. Franz Ferdinand popped very high in Croatia and other seemingly odd places. I then filtered for only in the United States.
Bird crushed Franz Ferdinand in Austin, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis. FF dominated Irvine, CA and LA. Not sure what that means? Bird rocks and FF doesn’t (yes I live in Chicago).
Twitterers are making more noise about Franz Ferdinand (sorry about the color swap, blue = bird in these graphs) — though in general, the tweet rate looks low. They start to look similar over the last few days.
The real metrics here are actual listens, downloads, or sales. Based on current Amazon Sales Rank, in CD format, “Tonight” ranks #36 and “Noble Beast” ranks #94. However, as an MP3 download,”Tonight” ranks #54 and “Noble Beast” dominates at #12.
I have a few tools I can use moving forward to track this stuff in more detail. Not sure what to make out of this just yet — but interesting nonetheless.
Cloud computing isn’t going to dominate the tech landscape, but will raise a ruckus for software vendors. Google and Amazon will be cloud computing winners, but the spoils will be relatively small. And there’s a race to deliver a cloud developer stack for both consumers and enterprise customers.
I don’t agree with the takeaways. They may not dominate the landscape as currently configured (might be new players and/or new manifestations), but I’ve had too many business models that are workable ONLY because of the cloud…